How will ICC shape the Jubilee agenda.

No matter how you looked at the 2013 elections, the fact is that the elections were all about one thing- a referendum on ICC. The Jubilee camp galvanized their support bases that a vote for them will be a vote against ICC. In fact, some argue that the ICC was a blessing in disguise as without it, the President and the Deputy President would never have united in the first place.

Much of the post election violence in 2007/08 took place in the Rift Valley between supporters of William Ruto- then an ODM member, and supporters of Mwai Kibaki- a voting block that was inherited by President Uhuru Kenyatta. They successfully campaigned that the ICC was an agent of the West, and their rallying call was sovereignty and a rejection of neocolonialism, and in true fashion, President Uhuru Kenyatta headed to China last month to sign over 400 billion shillings in contracts, in what analysts term as a snub to
the West. However, never mind that even after the elections, we still depend so much on the West. Our biggest exports; coffee, tea, and horticulture, as well as tourism, are still largely traded in Western markets. Many of the country’s elite are still largely Euro-centric, with their children schooling in some of the best universities in the UK and in the US.

The ICC will no doubt make Kenya shift more of its allegiance to the East, a trend that started under former President Mwai Kibaki. The cases will also make Kenya look to Africa for its identity and comradeship. William Ruto has already been to several African countries in a bid to woo them to support Kenya’s withdrawal from the ICC. Also, President Kenyatta scored one of many firsts when he rallied the Africa Union- an institution many think as being too much talk and no action- to give the ICC an ultimatum- that African countries will no longer be members if only their heads of states are chauffeured off to The Hague. Though the resolution was not legally binding, it showed that Kenyatta was already looking for allies and partners perhaps to blackmail the ICC.

The big question is how the President and his deputy will govern the country even as they take to the stands at the ICC. In the Presidential debate early this year, Mr. Kenyatta mentioned that the ICC was a personal circumstance, and not something that will affect the whole country. While that was his thinking before he ascended to the Presidency, his views will have to change. For example, no matter how much the governance systems are in place in the absence of him and his deputy, most Kenyans want to see the President around as proof that things are okay. Since the president is the symbol of national unity, to many of Kenyatta’s supporters, it is Kenya that is on trial at The Hague, and not the President himself. In that case then, it is more of a humiliation for the country to have its President at the ICC chambers, than of the trial of an individual. ICC has many times indicated that it is concerned with only the legal aspects of the trial process, and procuring justice for the victims. However, even as it does so, the court will be contending with a very delicate situation back in Kenya.